Jim Louderback says that TiVo will die.
The main problem with his hypothesis is that Louderback assumes people will actually let go of their Tivos. He assumes that just because there are free/cheap/high definition alternatives, the Tivo will go away and be replaced.
What he doesn't factor in is the user-friendliness of the Tivo and the learning curve for alternative machines. And, any hardcore Tivo user will tell you it's not the PVR features that make Tivo worth the investment, it's the wish lists, the season passes, and the fact that the thing just works.
Even if the company folds and never really brings an HD box to market, the Tivo community will figure out how to get listings on to boxes and downconvert HD signals to the analog Tivo. Really... who is dying to see Totally Outrageous Behavior Caught on Tape in High Definition? An analog conversion of a digital signal will look pretty darn good on the Tivo.